Do you sometimes wonder how reliable data on the UK housing market really is? This morning provides a good example. While we're waiting for the latest meeting of the
Bank of England's MPC, I thought it might be an idea to look at what the newspapers are reporting.
I was hoping to get an idea of the likely decision from the
MPC later. Unfortunately, it really seems like a muddle of news on house prices today.
Results from the
Halifax today suggest that the housing market is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. They reckon that
house prices rose by 0.7% in July. Some of us will recall that the Nationwide released their figures for July last week and suggested that house prices had
risen by 0.1% in July. Who do we believe? Or are both simply unreliable?
The
Halifax figures indicate that house prices have
risen by more than 11% in the last year, with the average home now valued at
£198,915.
Channel 4 News are reporting these figures under the headline of "housing market slowdown continues". They point out that both
Nationwide and
Hometrack suggest that
prices rose by 0.1% last month.
This Is Money suggest that July saw a surprise
£1,500 rise in house prices. A slightly more positive slant on the news.
So, what are we to make of it all? My analysis of the current situation is that UK house prices are still growing but at a very slow level. House price inflation has certainly slowed, undoubtedly as a result of the recent interest rate rises. Many people are wondering whether rates will continue to rise.
My best guess is that the Bank will take quite a conservative stance later today and decide to keep interest rates at the same level. The reason that I think they'll go down that route is because they won't want to push the housing market too far at this point, risking starting a crash.
It's also worth remembering that the
small rise in national house prices last month will hide regional variations. Some parts of the country will have seen fairly
substantial falls, while its likely that London, Northern Ireland and parts of South-East England will have seen
prices rising considerably more quickly than the headline rates suggested by mortgage lenders.